July 5, 2022 | Business insights
While we may not have a magic wand to reveal the future, we have the next best thing! View our 2021 Mid-Year Economic Update webinar to catch a glimpse of how your business may be impacted by possible market and industry trends.
Leading economist, Anirban Basu, Chairman and CEO of Sage Policy Group, Inc., delivers an insightful, entertaining “Chamber of Data” themed presentation that pays a subtle homage to the Harry Potter series. Don’t worry, we didn’t let the sorcery get out of hand.
During this webinar, Basu delivered economic data and an analysis juxtaposing the pre-pandemic and pandemic world, as well as a forecast for the post-pandemic environment. Among the areas of focus are:
- Labor Markets
- Financial Markets
- Real Estate
- Consumer Spending
- Business Investment
- International Trade
- Government Finances
Meet the Presenter:
Anirban Basu, Chairman & CEO of Sage Policy Group, Inc., is known as an economist with a personality, and alternatively, one with a sense of humor. Though the numbers and data are important, Basu and his team are highly skilled at translating economics into themes that audiences find compelling and understandable – regardless of the trade.
Below you will find short video clips from the full presentation that highlight key topics such as: the current state of the economic recovery, the implications of post-pandemic behaviors on commercial real estate and small business, and predictions for the second half of 2021.
The U.S. Economic Recovery Pattern
Was it a "V," was it a "K"? What did the recuperation of the U.S. economy look like, and what are the implications for what's to come?
Evolutions in the U.S. Unemployment Rate
What progress has occurred in unemployment, where are we today and what nuances continue to impact the labor market?
Is a Financial Crisis on the Horizon?
Will deficit spending eventually wreak havoc and when?
Economic Recovery Trends on Commercial Real Estate
Lasting post-pandemic behaviors are creating challenges for the commercial real estate sector, but opportunities are present.
Demand, Supply and Small Business Reluctance
While current demand indicates opportunities for growth, lagging supply joins the list of reasons small businesses are holding out.
Predictions for Second Half of 2021
What factors will present optimism or challenges for ongoing economic growth?
Many questions were submitted throughout the webinar presentation. This section includes questions and answers to the most commonly asked questions and related themes.
Questions on General Economy
Are there predictive indicators as to when interest rates will start increasing and at what pace? What do you think will be the highest level the 10-Year Treasury will trade at over the next two years?
What are the strongest business market trends in this economy?
When is the supply chain expected to get under control?
Can you touch on the economic forecast considering the potential increase of the COVID-19 variant?
Questions on Deficit Spending and Inflation
Which components of inflation do you expect to be transitory? I have particular interest in how ongoing inflation will affect assemblies manufactured from brass, aluminum and steel.
What are your inflation and interest rate projections for the coming years?
How will inflation positively/negatively affect our real estate investments? Is it better to hedge our capital into rental properties now to protect from inflation or sideline and wait for the market to cool down before purchasing additional properties?
Questions on Small Business
Questions on the Workforce
Why are we still having such challenges getting people back into employment?
How much will the expected reduction in federal employment supplements in September actually improve the staffing environment (hospitality, in particular)? Are we at the end or the beginning of a brutal labor market?
What impact may a hybrid model have on office vacancy rates, and is it possible it could trigger a spike in foreclosures if a strain on debt-service payments is created?
Will the "great resignation" have lasting affects on our economy or will it be a short blip on the radar screen that propels us further as a nation, as more people seek fulfilling careers where their passion and purpose intersect?
Questions on Specific Industries
What sectors will the stock market favor?
Should construction focus on single-family oy multi-family for the coming year?
How will long delays in availability and increased costs for all materials affect the construction industry? What is the short- and long-term forecast?
How does the ag market situate itself in an inflated market?
How does the real estate market look for the remainder of 2021 and 2022?
For full citations and sources, please view the full webinar presentation. This content was recorded on July 12, 2021. The thoughts and information provided regarding the 2021 Economic Outlook topic are those of Anirban Basu, Chairman & CEO of Sage Policy Group, Inc., and is not advice from your bank.
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